Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

系统动力学复杂性及其在海洋生态学中的研究进展

海洋生态系统具有开放性、耗散性和非线性等特点,可以借助于系统动力学方法对其研究.系统动力学研究一个不可回避的问题就是系统动力学复杂性.本文在简单介绍几种常见的系统动力学模型及其复杂性问题的基础上,系统阐述了当前系统动力学复杂性在海洋生物多样性的维持、海洋生态系统的物质循环、海洋生物群落结构稳定性、有害藻类的暴发、海洋污染物的扩散、海洋生态毒理动力学、海洋生物资源的开发与管理等方面的应用、研究进展及相关问题.在总结以上研究进展的基础上,本文对系统动力学复杂性在海洋生态学研究中的应用进行了展望.     

Changes in risk perception among North Sea offshore personnel in the period 1990 to 1994

A self-completion questionnaire survey was carried out among employees on offshore oil platforms in the Norwegian part of the North Sea in February 1990 and repeated in February 1994. A total of 915 employees on eight platforms (five oil companies) answered the questionnaire in 1990 and the response rate was 92%. In 1994, 1138 respondents on twelve platforms and nine companies filled in the questionnaire. The response rate was 87%. Significantly fewer of the personnel felt at risk in 1994 compared to 1990. Likewise, a greater percentage of the employees were satisfied with safety and contingency measures, and experienced job stress to a lesser extent in 1994 than they did in 1990.     

好氧颗粒污泥沉降选择实验研究与定量描述

以序批式反应器培养的成熟好氧颗粒污泥为对象,研究沉淀高度对颗粒数、比重、污泥浓度、粒径分布及选择系数的影响.结果表明,随着沉淀高度的增加,污泥浓度在沉淀时间为30 s时由0.24 mg.L-1明显增加至6.07 mg.L-1,平均粒径从450μm增加到550μm,颗粒圆形度增加12.67%,而复杂度减小13.47%,说明粒径较大、形状较规则的颗粒沉降较快,从而更易在沉降选择过程中得以保留.根据选择压原理,结合颗粒污泥沉降实验结果引入选择系数.实验和计算结果显示,在任意沉淀高度,选择系数随粒径和密度的增大而增加.随着沉淀高度的增加,直径>600～800μm的颗粒选择系数增加,小颗粒趋势与之相反,说明增大排水比有利于大颗粒保留而絮体被筛选出反应器,而低的排水比会使污泥颗粒化过程放缓.该研究结果可望对加速污泥颗粒化过程和提高其稳定性提供科学的理论依据和指导.     

基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例

从规划内容与目标、规划方法及方案实施和评估3方面对太湖近20年水污染物控制历程进行综合分析,认为太湖水污染物控制正处面源污染、生活污染及新型污染问题凸显且更难处理,更为广泛的利益相关者和科研队伍积极参与的转型期.这种变化将导致污染治理面临更难应付的动态性和复杂性,使得当前以环境容量为总量为指导通过自上而下分配排污量和削减量的控制方案面临极大挑战.结合太湖水污染现状,通过与现行治理方法在管理假设、适合对象、协调管理手段、管理目标、规划方法、公众参与程度以及规划的优劣势等方面的比较发现,适应性管理可以积极有效应对由于环境趋势和管理协调对象变化所带来的系统不确定性和复杂性,将是一个积极有效的补充方法.同时,本文基于适应性管理提出了太湖水环境污染物排放控制体系的构建框架,突出适应性管理平台、科学研究及公众与基层单位参与在污染物控制中的重要作用.     

模式搜索算法在毒气泄漏中的源强反算

基于泄漏源下风向的浓度监测数据并结合大气扩散模式建立反算模型,以确定泄漏源的位置和强度。以扩散模式仿真的浓度数据与监测数据的匹配度作为目标函数,将反演问题转化为优化问题,利用模式搜索算法迭代优化。以高斯模型为例验证了算法的可行性,结果表明利用探测器提供的测量浓度值,模式搜索算法能够在较短时间内搜索到最优解,在计算复杂性或时间上较梯度型算法和智能优化算法有一定优势。该算法能够及时而准确地反算出泄漏源强度和位置,为事故的应急响应与救援提供依据。     

Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship

Problem: Safety climate refers to the degree to which employees believe true priority is given to organizational safety performance, and its measurement is thought to provide an “early warning” of potential safety system failure(s). However, researchers have struggled over the last 25 years to find empirical evidence to demonstrate actual links between safety climate and safety performance.Method: A safety climate measure was distributed to manufacturing employees at the beginning of a behavioral safety initiative and redistributed one year later.Results: Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that perceptions of the importance of safety training were predictive of actual levels of safety behavior. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of change in perceptual safety climate scores will not necessarily match actual changes (r=0.56, n.s.) in employee's safety behavior.Discussion: This study obtained empirical links between safety climate scores and actual safety behavior. Confirming and contradicting findings within the extant safety climate literature, the results strongly suggest that the hypothesized climate-behavior-accident path is not as clear cut as commonly assumed.Summary: A statistical link between safety climate perceptions and safety behavior will be obtained when sufficient behavioral data is collected.Impact on Industry: The study further supports the use of safety climate measures as useful diagnostic tools in ascertaining employee's perceptions of the way that safety is being operationalized.     

社区防灾减灾对策的复杂性科学问题

"社区研究"已有约150年的历史,社区的防灾减灾对策是一个综合性的科学问题。充分发挥社区的防灾减灾功能十分必要,确立社区防灾减灾最优对策在中国的现代化建设和可持续发展战略中具有重要意义。利用复杂性科学的理论和模型来处理社区的防灾减灾对策问题,是系统科学或复杂性科学中的一个有意义的发展方向。本文提出并分析了社区防灾减灾对策研究中的4个问题,即如何界定社区防灾减灾应急管理的角色和方向;何为防灾减灾安全社区;如何预警突发性灾难事件;社区防灾减灾系统是如何自组织的。本文引入复杂性科学理论对社区的防灾减灾对策进行了研究,讨论了复杂性科学应用于社区防灾减灾对策的理论框架。     

Sustainable Farming Practices: Ghanaian Farmers' Perception of Erosion and Their Use of Conservation Measures

/ Major responsibility for conserving forest biodiversity is often assigned to natural resource agencies. Often unknown is the appropriate administrative context for doing so, especially the organizational location for biodiversity programs in state government, suitable levels of financial and professional investment in biodiversity programs, processes useful for coordinating programs located in different administrative settings, and the effectiveness of biodiversity programs, especially conditions associated with programs judged to be very effective. Focusing on forests, a nationwide survey of 156 forestry agency and biodiversity program administrators in all 50 states was undertaken. Effective forest biodiversity programs were those with a long-range plan, administered as a single organizational unit, located in close organizational proximity to a state's forestry agency, actively providing management practice advice to landowners, administrators, and the public, and firm actions taken to ensure coordination with other natural resource programs.     

元胞自动机在矿山地质灾害预测中的应用

本文根据复杂性科学理论,论证了地质灾害系统是一个复杂大系统。元胞自动机（Cellular Automata,CA）是一种重要的复杂性科学研究工具,本文阐述了元胞自动机的基本原理和方法,总结了其基本特点,认为元胞自动机在安全科学与技术领域有着广阔的应用前景,并探讨了其在滑波预测、地下水渗透、岩爆预测等几种矿山地质灾害预测中的应用。